We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
|
|
|
Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
