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Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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