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Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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