We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
|
|
|
Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
|
| |
| |
|
