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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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