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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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