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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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