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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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