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Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
 Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The current production cut schedule prior to OPECs meeting this past week, was supposed to last until March 2018, however it has come to light that it will now be extended until the end of 2018, in an attempt to prop up prices as many of OPEC’s members continue to feel strain from the low earnings generated by crude oil sales said Gerry Lathrop, Research Analyst at Allied shipping.
Gerry Lathrop further noted, what’s more is that Saudi Arabia, OPEC leading member, has to deal with ARAMCO’s planned IPO in 2018, which could greatly benefit from the higher crude oil prices. At the same time and in order for the Saudi Government to meet their government budget requirements and reduce their reliance on their cash reserves, are looking at a price target of around US$ 60 per barrel. This is contrary to Russia’s stance who would prefer oil prices to remain lower, and apparently would prefer a target of US$ 40 per barrel at the off chance that higher prices cause the US’s shale oil producers to head to the fields again. In addition to this, OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, who were previously exempt from production cuts, have now agreed to also cap production at their 2017 levels.
This of course can have a profound effect on the shipping side, where the mere talks of a production cut has oil traders rushing to their desks to close their next deal. In short, if oil prices start to show a trend of further price gains, oil traders and refiners will rush to book cargoes, so they can price their end products on competitive level and possibly benefit from a better profit margin, increasing demand in the crude market in the very short-term. In the long-term, if the price of oil also goes up, it is likely to dampen overall demand and cause a potential slowdown in trade. This negative effect however tends to be limited given that crude oil has fairly inelastic demand.
According to Gerry Lathrop of Allied, on the non-OPEC side of things, crude oil production in the US has hit a new record production level of 9.7 million barrels per day on average for the week ending November 17th, according to statistics from the US EIA. Similarly, crude oil imports from Venezuela to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform (LOOP) for the period of January to November 2017 are around 7 million barrels, which is almost 3 times as much as what we were seeing during the same time frame last year (2.5 million bbls). The main reason for importing so much Venezuelan crude seems to be mainly due to the lack of availability of Saudi Arabian heavy/sour crude resulting from their production cuts. According to US customs data, imports from Saudi are down 45% from 75 million barrels to 42 million barrels for the same 10-month period. This has undoubtedly caused much of the softening in the crude tanker market of late by removing many ton miles from the market.
In any case, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will trend come June of next year, as the tug of war continues between Russia’s stance on lower crude prices and Saudi’s preference for higher prices. We will probably see the price fall somewhere in between these respective price targets during most of 2018, while if prices increases above Saudi’s US$ 60 per barrel, a relatively swift ramp up in US shale oil production should help quickly push things back down. This points to the main risk by both OPEC and Russia, with any further cost efficiencies achieved by US shale producers allowing them to capture a higher market share and even make these production cuts irrelevant to the overall market.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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