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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in May 2015. But over the past few weeks, the scene has completely changed. There is an apparent lack of demolition candidates, while demo prices in the Indian subcontinent have lost over $30/ldt on average during the same period. Bangladesh and Pakistan were competing quite strongly offering a small premium over India’s Alang prices. However, the recent heavy decline in local steel plate prices has forced most end buyers to reduce their offering price.
In view of the restocking ahead of the monsoon season in late May –June and the annual budgets in Pakistan and Bangladesh during the same period, we remain to see if rumors of any new duties/taxes will come into effect for the respective domestic ship-recycling sectors, and how such developments will affect scrap buyers appetite.
We have to keep in mind that at the moment only Bangladesh and India can cut gas free and clean for hot works tanker vessels, as after the fatal accidents that took place in Pakistan earlier this year, there is still a total ban on the demolition of all wet units in the country.
Scrap prices are mainly dictated by steel demand and steel prices and these are subsequently affected by iron ore commodity prices. Iron ore prices had climbed from below $60/ton in Oct 2016 to approximately $96/ton in February this year. Since then, the price of the commodity has constantly dropped to settle at low $60/ton levels and at the end of last week when a full-scale retreat took place, with futures in China, Dalian Iron Ore witnessing a limit down on investor concern in regards to demand outlook.
It seems that the deleveraging of China's $4 trillion shadow banking system just accelerated massively as Bank Wealth Product Issuance crashed 15% month-over-month. With stocks and bonds already plunging, commodities joined the decline that came after tightened regulation on macro-prudential assessment and interbank business. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, there is still room for iron ore to decline further amid oversupply with imports and port stockpiles remaining at high levels that further support oversupply.
Over the past months, Capes and Panamaxes freight rates increased significantly by demand for more shipments, together with record steel production in China, and that has helped boost stockpiles at local ports. After peaking at a record 132.5 million tons in March, stockpiles have held near that level, according to Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co.
Since the end of March though the BCI has lost more than 1,100 points and the average earnings quoted by the Baltic Exchange have dropped from $20,650/day to $12,446/day today. Is it time to panic? The reality is that we are still way above the $1,985/day the big bulkers were earning in March 2016, but signs are indicating a slowdown in demand that inevitably always leads to pressure on earnings. As we are all waiting to see how long will this pressure last, all hopes for sustained positive sentiment in the dry bulk market have now been placed on the grains trade that could potentially make up for some of the lost momentum due to the slowdown Capesizes are currently witnessing.
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 December 16
OIL PRICES MAY SEE LITTLE GROWTH BEFORE 2018, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
High inventories and the potential for US shale production to respond quickly to any market tightening mean oil prices may flat line in 2017 before ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
CHINA 2017 OIL, GAS OUTPUT DROP MAY WORSEN ON CAPEX CUT: FITCH
China's oil and gas production may shrink even more in 2017 than in 2016 after the country's leading oil companies cut exploration and prod ...
Thursday, 01 December 16
ANOTHER WONDERFUL WEEK FOR PANAMAX - FEARNLEY
Supramax
A slower start to the week in the Pacific compared to last Trips from N. China to S. China is paying in the range of low USD 5k, while I ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
AUSTRALIA'S PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.08 MT OF COAL IN OCTOBER; DOWN 10.39% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,124.7 Mi ...
Tuesday, 29 November 16
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT TOTALS 17.2 MMST, UP 2.8% : EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17.2 million short ton ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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