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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in May 2015. But over the past few weeks, the scene has completely changed. There is an apparent lack of demolition candidates, while demo prices in the Indian subcontinent have lost over $30/ldt on average during the same period. Bangladesh and Pakistan were competing quite strongly offering a small premium over India’s Alang prices. However, the recent heavy decline in local steel plate prices has forced most end buyers to reduce their offering price.
In view of the restocking ahead of the monsoon season in late May –June and the annual budgets in Pakistan and Bangladesh during the same period, we remain to see if rumors of any new duties/taxes will come into effect for the respective domestic ship-recycling sectors, and how such developments will affect scrap buyers appetite.
We have to keep in mind that at the moment only Bangladesh and India can cut gas free and clean for hot works tanker vessels, as after the fatal accidents that took place in Pakistan earlier this year, there is still a total ban on the demolition of all wet units in the country.
Scrap prices are mainly dictated by steel demand and steel prices and these are subsequently affected by iron ore commodity prices. Iron ore prices had climbed from below $60/ton in Oct 2016 to approximately $96/ton in February this year. Since then, the price of the commodity has constantly dropped to settle at low $60/ton levels and at the end of last week when a full-scale retreat took place, with futures in China, Dalian Iron Ore witnessing a limit down on investor concern in regards to demand outlook.
It seems that the deleveraging of China's $4 trillion shadow banking system just accelerated massively as Bank Wealth Product Issuance crashed 15% month-over-month. With stocks and bonds already plunging, commodities joined the decline that came after tightened regulation on macro-prudential assessment and interbank business. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, there is still room for iron ore to decline further amid oversupply with imports and port stockpiles remaining at high levels that further support oversupply.
Over the past months, Capes and Panamaxes freight rates increased significantly by demand for more shipments, together with record steel production in China, and that has helped boost stockpiles at local ports. After peaking at a record 132.5 million tons in March, stockpiles have held near that level, according to Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce Co.
Since the end of March though the BCI has lost more than 1,100 points and the average earnings quoted by the Baltic Exchange have dropped from $20,650/day to $12,446/day today. Is it time to panic? The reality is that we are still way above the $1,985/day the big bulkers were earning in March 2016, but signs are indicating a slowdown in demand that inevitably always leads to pressure on earnings. As we are all waiting to see how long will this pressure last, all hopes for sustained positive sentiment in the dry bulk market have now been placed on the grains trade that could potentially make up for some of the lost momentum due to the slowdown Capesizes are currently witnessing.
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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