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Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude futures also declined on concerns about growing oil output and high crude inventories in the US. ICE Brent ended 6.2% lower at $52.54/b, while NYMEX WTI decreased 7.1% to $49.67/b. The BrentWTI spread widened to $2.86/b, supporting US crude oil exports. Hedge funds liquidated their large net long positions in crude, contributing to the sharp drop in oil prices.
World Economy
The momentum in global economic growth has been improving resulting in an upward revision in the 2017 forecast to now stand at 3.3% from 3.2% previously, while growth for 2016 remains at 3.0%. OECD growth in 2017 remains at 1.9%, with the US and Euro-zone seeing no revisions. Japan’s 2017 growth forecast was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1% previously. China’s 2017 growth was also revised higher to 6.3% from 6.2%, while India’s forecast remains at 7.0%. Russia’s 2017 growth was revised up to 1.2% from 1.0%, while the forecast for Brazil is unchanged at 0.5%.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth in 2016 was kept broadly unchanged at 1.38 mb/d, averaging 95.05 mb/d. For 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d, following an upward revision of 10 mb/d to average 96.32 mb/d. The ‘Other Asia’ group – which includes India – is anticipated to lead oil demand growth in 2017, followed by China and OECD Americas. OECD Asia-Pacific is the only region anticipated to see a decline in oil demand in 2017.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have averaged 57.32 mb/d in 2016, representing a contraction of 0.69 mb/d y-o-y following a minor downward revision of 30 tb/d. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.58 mb/d, following an upward revision of 176 tb/d due to higher than expected growth in the US and lesser contractions in Colombia and China, to average 57.89 mb/d. The US supply growth forecast was revised up by 0.20 mb/d to stand at 0.54 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil production is forecast to grow by 0.13 mb/d in 2017, following growth of 0.14 mb/d in 2016. In March, OPEC production decreased by 153 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.93 mb/d. Product Markets and
Refining Operations
Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in the Atlantic Basin, as the lack of export opportunities for gasoline amid increasing inflows of middle distillates impacted the European market. Meanwhile, stronger domestic gasoline demand in the US ahead of the transition to summer grades lent strong support to refinery margins. In Asia, the lack of arbitrage amid increasing inflows into the region weighed on the market despite the onset of the spring refinery maintenance season.
Tanker Market
The tanker market showed a mixed pattern in March. VLCCs exhibiting an average decline of 23% m-o-m in spot rates on its various trading routes, as the tonnage availability remained abundant. In contrast, Suezmax and Aframax rates increased m-o-m by 13%, and 6%, respectively, mainly due to transit delays in the Turkish Straits, discharge delays in the east, and occasional tightening in tonnage supply. The market experienced higher monthly freight rates for clean tankers on most reported routes.
Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in February to 2,987 mb to now stand 268 mb above the latest five years average. Crude and product stocks indicated a surplus of around 227 mb and 41 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.2 days, some 4.6 days higher than the latest five-year average Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 now stands at 31.7 mb/d, which is 1.9 mb/d higher than the 2015 level. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.2 mb/d, around 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2016 level.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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