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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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