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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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