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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 31 October 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL ROSE 5.56% WEEK OVER WEEK - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: The price for thermal coal has recovered substantially since April 2016. The China’s new policy on its domestic coal miners, th ...
Friday, 28 October 16
STEAM COAL IMPORTS: CHINA AND INDIA'S ROLE REVERSALS - BEN TRIMMEL
While a sharp decline in European imports is a key driver of the expected fall in steam coal trade this year, China and India remain leading actors ...
Friday, 28 October 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE DURING THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 22 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 27 October 16
73.08 PERCENT OF COAL PRODUCERS PREDICTED INDIA WILL NOT STOP COAL IMPORTS IN 2 TO 3 YEARS - POLL
COALspot released its weekly opinion poll "How likely do you think India will STOP thermal coal imports in 2-3 years?" this Monday.
...
Thursday, 27 October 16
PANAMAX: FIRM ATLANTIC; TOPPISH PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The trend from last week is passed on. ECSA still strong with Supras from N Brazil to Med fixed at $9,000 to $9,500 daily.
Accordin ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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