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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Thursday, 03 November 16
CAPESIZE: BRAZIL/CHINA RATES MOVED TO THE $11 PMT LEVEL; WEST AUSTRALIA/CHINA ROUTE MOVED UP CLOSE TO MID $5 PMT LEVEL - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Atlantic we see a bit more activity than in the eastern hemisphere, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Fhauls via Black ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
A week before the U.S. presidential election, everyone is eager to see the socio-political effects that the result of these elections will have. As ...
Wednesday, 02 November 16
SHIP OPERATING COSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN BOTH 2016 AND 2017 - MOORE STEPHENS
Vessel operating costs are expected to rise in both 2016 and 2017. Repairs and maintenance and spares are the cost categories which are likely to i ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
PANAMAX : A FAIR AMOUNT OF SIDEWAYS SHIPPING IN RATES - ALLIED SHIPPING
Capesize
A very sluggish start to the week, with rates dropping considerably as all optimism seems to have evaporated over the weekend. According ...
Tuesday, 01 November 16
IMPROVEMENT ON THE DEMAND SIDE ONLY BUT THE SUPPLY SIDE IS WORSE OFF - BIMCO
Back in May, BIMCO disclosed a projected “road to recovery” for the dry bulk shipping industry. The main message back then on what the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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