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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
The first quarter of 2017 started relatively busy for the ship repair sector, with most of the repair facilities being nearly fully occupied till t ...
Monday, 10 April 17
THE CAPE INDEX WAS DOWN BY 16.32% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was steady week over a week except for Cape. The cape index was down 16.32 percent week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 07 April 17
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED SPOT COAL PRICES STAGE FIRST INCREASE OF THE YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose slightly in April, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indon ...
Friday, 07 April 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ALMOST FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 06 April 17
PANAMAX: THE MARKET HAS CONTINUED THE FIRM SENTIMENT FROM LAST WEEK IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
With holidays in Asia, the week has started very slow in Pacific. Some fixtures have still been done and levels have remained quite stab ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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