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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 31 October 17
BALTIC DRY INDEX TAKES A BREAK FROM ITS UPWARD RALLY COURSE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a week of corrections for the dry bulk freight market as it seems as the general Baltic Dry Index takes a break from its upward rally c ...
Friday, 27 October 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.9 million short tons ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
CYBER COVER FOR E-BILLS - PHILIP STEPHENSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Increasingly popular electronic bills of lading are, by their nature, susceptible to the risk of cyber attack. Here, Stan ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
INDO TO CHINA ROUNDS SUPRAS ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH $14000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
By mid-week the market has been relatively quiet in the Pacific basin as well, but still some healthy rates being achieved on the differ ...
Thursday, 26 October 17
STRONG SIGNAL FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL DEMAND - GREG EVANS
The International Energy Agency’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report, released today, presents a positive outlook for Australian coal produ ...
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Showing 1901 to 1905 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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