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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 November 17
MECHEL SIGNED LONG-TERM COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT WITH ITOCHU CORPORATION
Mechel PAO a leading Russian mining and metals company, reports signing a framework agreement with a major Japanese universal trading company Itoch ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
DRY BULK SHIPPING: TAKE GOOD CARE OF THE RECOVERY SAYS PETER SAND
Demand:
Even without much support from Brazilian iron ore exports during August, capesize rates went from $10,000 to $17,000 per day. In Septembe ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY BUOYANT - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were relatively buoyant. Metallurgical coal prices were supported by the stronger steel and iron ore prices, says Daniel Hynes, Senior ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as ...
Monday, 06 November 17
COAL SHORTAGE HURTS INDIA'S HINDALCO AND VEDANTA SAYS BUSINESS STANDARD
Aluminium smelter operations of Vedanta and Hindalco are at risk of turning unviable due to a coal crunch.
According to Business Standard an I ...
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Showing 1891 to 1895 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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