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Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
AlliedAfter having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forward to for several years now. As such the question being thrown around more often nowadays is “what’s in store for 2017” and “will we see a better market this year”, prompting many to take out their “crystal balls” seeking to see if this will be a year of gains or yet another full of further pains, said Allied shipping in its latest weekly report.

According head of market research & asset valuations of Allied shipping George Lazaridis, on the Dry Bulk side, the market gone through some of its worst pains over the last twelve months and are now looking towards a brighter future in the horizon (or is this just hopeful thinking?). On the ugly side of things, it looks as though demand is likely to face serious issues in the near term. Further trimming of coal consumption seems to be in sight, given the serious smog problems being faced in China’s capital these past months. Allied shipping further noted that, other industrial commodities such as iron ore are still tied to a global economy which is still seemingly anaemic in nature and as such are unlikely to show any extraordinarily boosted figures in terms of trade growth. While being on the topic of global economic growth, there are still a number of risks to be faced, given the developments scheduled in this year’s political agenda, with Europe now taking centre stage for most as a number of countries in the region are set to go through some “tricky elections” while the U.K. will also start tackling the difficult negotiations as to its terms of exit. As to developments in the U.S., not much is yet known as to what the new direction will be of the next U.S. president and what this will spell in terms of trade relations for the world’s largest economy.

That’s as far as the main bad news have to go. However there are a number of bright spots in the horizon which could just make 2017 the turning point in the market that everyone has been looking forward to. The order book in the dry bulk market has been at some of its lowest levels (compared to the active fleet) that we have seen in over 15 years now, says Allied. Given the current order book schedule this also means that the growth in supply will start to stagnate after June. At the same "me and unlike what we have seen in the past, there is currently little appetite for another ordering frenzy to take place, while many shipbuilders are already finding themselves in dire conditions, making the possibility of offering extra incentives such as easy financing and favourable payment terms and prices a difficult thing right now. As the order book starts to dry up, the world’s shipbuilding capacity will start to shrink considerably and as that happens, the market will be finally allowed to go through longer cycles then the two year peaks and troughs we have grown accustomed to over the past 8 years, said head of market research & asset valuations of Allied shipping George Lazaridis in latest weekly report.

Allied research team further noted that, things are a little shakier for the tanker sector, where we expect to see demand levels slowly slumber as the price of crude oil continues its rise. Demand in the crude oil trade has been facing difficulties for many years now and given that the main driver of the market (low prices) has now left us, the balance in the market will become more unstable. The order book is not in the worst state it has ever been, as few went out to order new vessels during the past two years, though even this might eventually prove to be more then what tanker owners would like.

Given that non-OPEC oil production could once again flourish under these new terms, the price of crude is expected to cap at lower levels then what it was 3 years ago, but all will depend as to how high that price cap will be, Allied concluded.


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