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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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