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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
 On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together producers and consumers to discuss the present energy market conditions. After the closing of the IEF conference, OPEC Ministers held informal talks in an effort to cut a deal that would either freeze or reduce oil supply in pursuit of more stabilized markets and elevated oil prices. The current output OPEC members is more than 33.2 million barrels a day and inventories will grow even higher if no action is taken. It has been argued that oil production needs to be reduced by 1 million barrels a day so that the market rebalances. Likewise, Algeria’s energy minister reasoned that “oil has sufficiently fluctuated on speculation that OPEC and Russia will agree to support oil prices in the midst of oversupply”.
The question that arises is if OPEC members can do the impossible, which for most seems like having a mountain to climb. As discussed, one of the reasons that oil prices are low is due to the oversupplied market with members having had no success in negotiating production cutbacks so far. Major producers, driven by Saudi Arabia have been pumping at near record levels over the last two years, trying to maintain their market share by squeezing out higher cost producers such as the U.S and Canada. Consequently, since 2014 oil prices have dropped by 60% and U.S. production has diminished. The income of nations such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia depends on their exports and low prices have proven to be troublesome. Furthermore, consenting to production freeze at current levels may seem a fair compromise but not a promising solution. IEA forecasts that global oil surplus will last well into 2017 as demand grows at a slower pace than previously foreseen, particularly in Asia. Meanwhile, not only OPEC members output is at record levels but Russia is also producing close to its maximum capacity, while Libya and Nigeria indicate they want to raise their output for the rest of this year.
Moreover, Iran's full on return earlier this year further affected the market, as the country has been continuously increasing its oil output in an effort to once more claim its place as one of the world's top oil exporters. In any case, Saudi Arabia won’t wish for Iran to expand its production while the country itself is cutting back as that would mean handing over market share to its main regional competitor. It was recently reported that Saudi Arabia may agree to decrease production if only Iran acknowledges freezing its output level. Either way, once OPEC members come to an agreement they won’t want prices to go higher than $55-60 per barrel as they will risk helping higher cost competitors, such as shale oil producers, to get back in the game.
Inevitably, the equilibrium point is fragile for leading oil producers to achieve. On one side, a greedy stance to accomplish higher prices will give the leeway to higher cost producers to step in and on the other side a conservative attitude to defend their market share, flirts with the risk of operating at a loss. The global oil market has faced numerous difficulties, deriving essentially from excess supply. Oil-exporting countries and companies’ profits have deteriorated, increasing their budget deficits and crippling their economy. Additionally, those low prices inevitably lead to layoffs and reductions in new venture spending. But even with all these negative effects, the scenario in which the stagnation of oil major oil producers eventually leads to demand exceeding supply and leads to higher prices is a bit off. So IT IS really down to OPEC’s joined action despite many believing that the organization can’t do much these days.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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