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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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