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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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