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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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