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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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