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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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