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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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