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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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