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Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
 Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. These vessels, with a 400,000 deadweight tonnes capacity, are the largest carrying dry bulk commodities. When the ships are delivered in 2018 and 2019, a smooth introduction into the China iron ore imports trade is likely, contrasting with the experience of their predecessors.
The new tonnage will join an existing fleet of 34 similar valemax VLOCs (very large ore carriers) built in the past few years, operated by shipowners in several countries. Originally the class was named ‘chinamax’, reflecting the intended destination for most of the iron ore cargoes carried by these ships, supplied from Brazil. A name change to valemax was decided by Brazilian mining company Vale, which developed the concept, when discharging at Chinese ports was blocked, a severe setback. But this difficulty was eventually resolved.
A new bulk carrier class emerges
An unusually long boom in the dry bulk freight market, over several years up to mid-2008, provided motivation for the valemax concept gestation period. High and volatile freight rates for all dry commodities on international routes were experienced. These elevated rates were especially notable in the size group of vessels widely employed within the global iron ore and some other commodity trades, ‘capesize’ ships carrying about 180,000 dwt tonnes.
China had become, since 2003, the world’s largest iron ore importer and annual volumes continued growing rapidly. As a key supplier, Brazil focused on this market with substantial growth potential. Among alternative suppliers, competition with Australia is particularly intense. Australian miners have a big transportation cost advantage when exporting to Asian destinations: a much shorter distance compared with Brazil. The distance to Chinese ports from Western Australia is one-third of that from Brazil to China, resulting in much lower freight rates
Vale’s strategy to improve its competitiveness was massive capital investment in shipping capacity. A new class of many and far larger vessels, under the mining company’s full control, was designed to exploit economies of scale, with the aim of greatly lowering transportation unit costs. Exposure to the heights and variations of the global ocean freight market, and reliance on independent shipowners operating in that market, would be hugely reduced, making the delivered cost of Brazilian iron ore more attractive.
In mid-2008 the strategy profile became clearer. An order for a series of twelve new valemax 400,000 dwt ore carriers was placed at a Chinese shipbuilding yard, and further newbuilding orders followed for similar ships. Also, long-term 20-25 years transportation contracts were agreed by Vale with several independent shipowners based in other countries who, in turn, placed orders for new similar vessels to service the contracts.
An especially notable agreement was made with South Korean shipowners STX Pan Ocean. Reportedly the world’s largest contract of affreightment, valued at $5.8 billion, it covered 300 million tonnes of iron ore from Brazil to China over 25 years, requiring eight valemaxes each carrying an average 12m annually.
The current fleet
Valemax ships are the leviathans of dry bulk shipping, more than twice as big as capesize bulk carriers, typical vessels in the large capacity category. Dimensions of valemaxes are: length 360 metres, beam (width) 65 metres, draft (depth below waterline) 23 metres. The hull is divided into seven cargo holds and productivity is enhanced by ability to be loaded very rapidly. Previous the record holder was a 365,000 dwt ore carrier built thirty years ago and still trading today.
A remarkably large number of valemaxes, 35 in total, was ordered by Vale and its three shipowner partners – STX Pan Ocean, Oman Shipping and Berge Bulk – in this round. Most orders were obtained by shipyards in China, accompanied by some placed in South Korea. Deliveries began in early 2011, and the majority had been completed by the end of 2013.
The table below shows the year of delivery from builders and current owners. One vessel is still under construction, so the present total is 34. Vale originally owned 19, more than half the total. During the past twelve months, Vale sold 12 ships to Chinese operators (China VLOC, China Ore Shipping and ICBC Leasing) following earlier leasing of four ships to another Chinese owner, Shandong Shipping.
Valemaxes are not the only VLOCs operating in the Brazil iron ore export trades. A large number of other big ore carriers is regularly employed. Many of these ships were originally built as tankers to carry crude oil, and were converted to ore carriers.
Calculations based on a snapshot view of recent (early May 2016) employment revealed that, excluding the valemaxes, 69 ships of 240,000 dwt and larger were involved in Vale iron ore export trades to China and numerous other destinations. All except one were actually in a range of 247,000 to 327,000 dwt. Converted former tankers numbered 32, almost half the total number, mainly 260,000 to 300,000 dwt, built in the 1990-1995 period and converted between 2008 and 2011.
Trading patterns
Generally, the maxim applicable is that the larger the ship, the more restricted the trading pattern. This basic feature applies to most ship types. Typically there are two constraints: port and berth dimensions and cargo handling facilities (including storage) at loading and discharging ports, and the volume and regularity of cargo flows. Canal restrictions are sometimes another limitation. Valemax 400,000 dwt ore carriers are restricted to a small number of trade routes.
The original rationale for valemax size vessels focused on employment in carrying massive and growing iron ore imports into China. When the current ships were ordered, China was already the dominant iron ore importer, receiving 444 million tonnes in 2008, a 53 percent share of global seaborne iron ore trade, of which Brazil supplied 101mt (23 percent).
Today’s volumes are much higher. China’s total imports reached 953mt in 2015, a 70 percent share of world seaborne iron ore trade. Brazil supplied 192mt, a smaller 20 percent proportion of the China import market, but the actual volume was almost double that seen seven years earlier. The current valemax fleet theoretically could carry about one-quarter of the trade from Brazil to China annually, over 53mt (assuming each vessel completed four trips). Consequently, there is ample potential employment. Moreover, some vessels participate in other trades.
Since valemax ore carriers were introduced, iron ore cargoes from Ponta da Madeira, Tubarao and Guaiba in Brazil carried by these vessels have been received in a number of countries around the world as well as China. Discharge ports include Taranto (Italy), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Sohar (Oman), Oita, Kimitsu and Kashima (Japan), Gwangyang and Dangjin (South Korea), Villanueva (Philippines) and Subic Bay (Philippines). An entirely new port terminal at Teluk Rubiah (Malaysia) started receiving shipments in early 2014.
Delayed role in China’s imports
During the period of almost four years following the introduction of valemaxes in 2011, only a small number of these ships were given permission to discharge in Chinese ports and the cargoes were less than full shiploads. Eventually, in early 2015, problems which had prevented extensive valemax participation in this trade were resolved.
How did the unanticipated prolonged delay in gaining access to Chinese ports occur? Before the first valemax was delivered from the shipbuilders in May 2011, opposition from China was intensifying. Later in that year, the China Shipowners Association expressed their view that employing valemaxes in this trade was monopolistic and represented unfair competition. Concern about port safety also was expressed. In January 2012, the Chinese government announced a formal ban on these vessels using Chinese ports. The competition issue seems to have been the main influence.
Long before the official ban, amid mounting opposition from the Chinese government to the original strategy, Vale had disclosed in October 2010 a modified plan involving transshipments. This plan featured valemaxes carrying iron ore to a port where cargoes could be offloaded into smaller ships acceptable at all final destinations. The regional distribution centre at Teluk Rubiah, Malaysia was designed. A further centre in the Middle East area at Sohar, Oman was planned.
Valemax size shipments started arriving at Sohar in September 2011, with full operations beginning in the following March. Arrangements were made also for another transshipment facility, a floating terminal at Subic Bay, Philippines, where valemax size cargoes could be transferred offshore to smaller bulk carriers. This became operational in February 2012, when the world’s largest dry bulk floating storage vessel (a converted tanker) arrived, and a second floating terminal was added in the next year. The land based distribution hub at Teluk Rubiah began receiving cargoes in early 2014, fully opening later in that year.
Foreshadowing an end to the dispute as opposition from China’s shipowners gradually receded, Chinese shipowning company Shandong Shipping leased four valemaxes from Vale towards the end of 2013. This progress was followed In September 2014 by Cosco signing a provisional cooperation agreement to buy from Vale, and charter back on long term 25-year charters, four vessels of this type. Another provisional contract with China Merchants Group was also agreed.
Eventually, early in 2015, China’s objections were removed and the ban was lifted. Later, several ports were officially permitted to receive the vessels – Dalian, Qingdao, Tangshan and Ningbo-Zhoushan. The first recorded full valemax cargo of iron ore, from Brazil, was received at Dongjiakou (Qingdao) at the end of July 2015.
In the past twelve months, since the lifting of the ban, China has firmly embraced the giant ore carrier concept. Three major purchases from Vale were finalised. In May 2015 Cosco bought four valemaxes for $445 million, for operation by China Ore Shipping (a new company 51 percent owned by Cosco and 49 percent by China Shipping Group, preceding the merger of the two holding companies). Soon after, in July, China Merchants Energy Shipping bought four valemaxes for $448m and set up a new operating subsidiary, China VLOC. Finally, in December, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s ICBC Leasing subsidiary purchased a further four ships for $423m.
What has the valemax strategy achieved?
When Vale’s original strategy became known, it was soon clear that it was industrial bulk shipping on a vast scale, one of the biggest arrangements of its type ever seen in the dry bulk sector. Given the enormous scale of capital investment involved, it is arguable that advantages for the mining company have been modest so far, mostly reflecting a shipping market environment evolving very differently to what was envisaged at the outset.
Varying conditions ranging from subdued to depressed have prevailed, in the dry bulk freight market, during much of the past five years since valemaxes started operating. Low open market rates over a long period diminished the economic justification for mega-size ships, greatly reducing envisaged savings in iron ore transport costs. The differential between freight rates from Brazil and the main export competitor, Australia was compressed, removing more benefit. However, some advantage has been gained by avoiding brief spikes in capesize rates.
Accompanying these general market aspects related to valemax employment, an inability to access Chinese ports regularly with fully-loaded ships for several years was a huge setback. Although a workable alternative plan was quickly put in place, featuring transshipment at various locations, it involved significant extra costs. These additional expenses partly offset gains from lower unit costs of transportation resulting from economies of scale.
Nevertheless there are still, potentially, benefits to be gained in the future over the remaining lifespan of the existing ships, two decades or more. A balanced view will be possible only much later during this period. If another long dry bulk freight market boom occurred, unlikely though that may seem based on present signs, the valemax strategy could prove to have been extraordinarily sound and far-sighted.
A contrasting approach by Vale’s principal competitors in the international iron ore market has been seen. Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have adopted different strategies. Although Rio Tinto has invested in ore carriers to some extent, these are not the mega-size ships. BHP Billiton has remained focused mainly upon using the open freight market.
Future fleet enlargement
Underlining potential future advantages are plans, recently announced, to almost double the size of the present valemax fleet. This expansion presumably has been informed by performance already experienced, and probably reflects expectations of a fairly subdued freight market evolution in many of the years ahead.
During the past few months it was confirmed that three Chinese shipowners have placed orders with shipbuilders in China for 30 valemaxes to be delivered in 2018 and 2019, as shown in the table below. Reports indicate that Vale is chartering all the ships on long 27 years contracts of affreightment.
Although these orders have added to anxiety about future global bulk carrier fleet expansion, it seems clear that a large proportion of the new capacity is effectively replacement tonnage. Many vessels Vale is currently using, VLOCs converted from tankers, probably will reach or approach their life-cycle end by 2020 or earlier. Among these, numerous ships were built in the years up to 1993, and so will be twenty five or more years old by 2018.
The new valemaxes will assist in providing iron ore transportation on the Brazil to China route at the most economical cost. Enhanced competitiveness with other iron ore suppliers, especially Australia is likely to result. Another aspect is that full possession of the vessels by China-owned shipping companies is consistent with the national strategic aim to carry a higher proportion of the country’s trade in domestically-owned ships.
Article by Richard Scott, visiting lecturer, London universities & MD, Bulk Shipping Analysis | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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