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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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