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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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