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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 30 March 16
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE THE SELLING PRICE OF COAL TO MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia to review to revise methodology to determine the selling price of co ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
At a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terroris ...
Tuesday, 29 March 16
BULK CARRIER VENTILATION - CAPTAIN PAUL R. WALTON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Moisture damage is a source of many cargo claims. Claimants allege that it is brought about by the ship’s failure t ...
Monday, 28 March 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED SLIGHTLY FIRM; CS 57 INDEX CLOSED WEAK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.03 percent week over week to averaging $38.91 per ton on this past Thursday, ...
Monday, 28 March 16
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP TWENTY-FOUR POINTS TO 473 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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