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Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes.
April 4, 2016. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from MSI*.
However timecharter rates are much worse now ($5,700/day for a Panamax) than they were then ($9,500/day). It is necessary to look back to 1986 to see nominal timecharter rates as low as today in annual average terms.
The spot market is in even worse condition: according to a theoretical voyage cost calculation across a representative sample, almost a fifth of aggregate earnings for Capesize vessels on the spot market would have been negative this year to date, taking into account individual vessel fuel consumption characteristics.
Asset values at scrap-plus
With earnings currently at OPEX or below, even 15 year old vessels are now being valued at their realisable scrap value, plus a nominal mark-up for vessel-specific condition. Age beyond 15 years is now purely a number and has little impact on value. The extreme levels to which prices for old vessels have collapsed can be seen in the Chart below, which compares the current second hand Panamax vessel values in terms of Net Replacement Value (NRV) with historical ranges.
Thoughts are no longer fixated on how low earnings and prices will fall – the general consensus is that both are at or near the floor. The focus is now on the shape of the downturn – or rather how long it will last. First and foremost is there any hope for bulker earnings and prices in 2016?
In terms of downward momentum, the good news is that the end is nigh with an expectation that second-hand prices will bottom out at levels marginally below current values during 2Q 2016 for almost all ages and sizes of dry bulk carriers.
This is underpinned by expectations of a minor rate correction in Q2, driven by a seasonal uptick in iron ore imports by China and strong South American grains exports. Enthusiasm should be tempered for the remainder of this year, however; the outlook for dry bulk supply/demand fundamentals in aggregate for 2016 is far from promising, with supply growth set to more than offset demand growth by a small margin.
Changing demand dynamics
The story is not much brighter for beyond this year – it is not until 2018 before we see any sustained improvement in market balances. Moreover, there are significant risks on the downside to this view.
In MSI’s latest dry bulk report we present a scenario in which plausible downside risks to MSI’s forecast for Chinese and Indian coal imports and Chinese iron ore imports are realised, including a robust supply-side response. Under this scenario, we would not anticipate an uptick in market balances or timecharter rates before 2020.
Source: Maritime Strategies International
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Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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