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Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side changes.
April 4, 2016. In terms of annual average fleet employment rates, the dry bulk market has now dropped to levels last seen over 20 years ago in 1992, according to the latest quarterly dry bulk market forecast from MSI*.
However timecharter rates are much worse now ($5,700/day for a Panamax) than they were then ($9,500/day). It is necessary to look back to 1986 to see nominal timecharter rates as low as today in annual average terms.
The spot market is in even worse condition: according to a theoretical voyage cost calculation across a representative sample, almost a fifth of aggregate earnings for Capesize vessels on the spot market would have been negative this year to date, taking into account individual vessel fuel consumption characteristics.
Asset values at scrap-plus
With earnings currently at OPEX or below, even 15 year old vessels are now being valued at their realisable scrap value, plus a nominal mark-up for vessel-specific condition. Age beyond 15 years is now purely a number and has little impact on value. The extreme levels to which prices for old vessels have collapsed can be seen in the Chart below, which compares the current second hand Panamax vessel values in terms of Net Replacement Value (NRV) with historical ranges.
Thoughts are no longer fixated on how low earnings and prices will fall – the general consensus is that both are at or near the floor. The focus is now on the shape of the downturn – or rather how long it will last. First and foremost is there any hope for bulker earnings and prices in 2016?
In terms of downward momentum, the good news is that the end is nigh with an expectation that second-hand prices will bottom out at levels marginally below current values during 2Q 2016 for almost all ages and sizes of dry bulk carriers.
This is underpinned by expectations of a minor rate correction in Q2, driven by a seasonal uptick in iron ore imports by China and strong South American grains exports. Enthusiasm should be tempered for the remainder of this year, however; the outlook for dry bulk supply/demand fundamentals in aggregate for 2016 is far from promising, with supply growth set to more than offset demand growth by a small margin.
Changing demand dynamics
The story is not much brighter for beyond this year – it is not until 2018 before we see any sustained improvement in market balances. Moreover, there are significant risks on the downside to this view.
In MSI’s latest dry bulk report we present a scenario in which plausible downside risks to MSI’s forecast for Chinese and Indian coal imports and Chinese iron ore imports are realised, including a robust supply-side response. Under this scenario, we would not anticipate an uptick in market balances or timecharter rates before 2020.
Source: Maritime Strategies International
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Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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