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Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
IntermodalAt a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terrorist-related acts in every corner of the world. While it is by no means the purpose of this column to cover such issues, it is hard to ignore the effects of such events upon our societies or the uncertainty they enforce upon the world economy –including shipping- that still fights with its own nightmares.

Let’s take the Valemaxes for example; the biggest nightmare of today’s dry bulk market.

At a time that sentiment and hard facts could not look any dimmer, it is with extreme numbness that markets received the news that Chinese shipping majors Cosco Group, China Merchants Group and ICBC Financial Leasing Co. have placed orders for 30 giant Valemax vessels that worth a combined $2.5 billion. The exact number of vessels on order varies according to different reports and whilst deliveries look set to commence in 2018, no one knows the exact schedule that has been agreed with the 4 Chinese yards that have agreed to undertake this ambitious project.

If we are to state the obvious, there is no denying that such move –originally designed to increase China’s grip on the supply side of iron ore- would put further pressure on independent shipowners amidst one of the longest ever downturns ever witnessed on the dry sector. However, instead over-dramatizing the situation let’s start looking for a silver lining in this mighty dark cloud...

Regardless of regulations about Tier III, WBTS and other emission regulations coming into forces, which surely have been accounted for into cost calculations, Vale and their partners should be taking into consideration that scrapping age for capes has already approached the 15year mark. If we assume a moderate renewal plan in place for the “overage” VLOC’s as well, then the table above will indicate that situation might not drastically worsen by the gradual introduction of VLOC’s over the next 3 years.

On the other hand, demand for coal and coal transportation –to be more specific- is on a negative trail and the importance of iron ore as a cargo is becoming integral to all cape owners/operators; hence, we expect the fight to be even harder between Capes and VLOC’s. Should Vale and their Chinese counterparts expect to see some sense out of this market, they should first ensure that scrapping intensifies and they stay true to the one principle that we need to hold for the next 3 years; NEGATIVE fleet growth.

By Christos Trageas 
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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