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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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