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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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