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Wednesday, 16 March 16
OIL SUPPLY OUTPACES DEMAND ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL ARE BEING STORED RATHER THAN CONSUMED - CHRISTOPHER
 Oil producers have turned to the concept of limiting their output to January levels as a certain form of action to boost prices that have fallen more than 70% since the middle of 2014. Oil supply outpaces demand on any given day, and billions of barrels of oil are being stored rather than consumed. As a result, oil prices have collapsed to as low as $26 per barrel in February, from well over $100 in 2014.
It is interesting that currently, Iran and Iraq both play an important role in the contemplated production freeze. Iran has already been increasing production and the country’s position is that it would consider oil-production caps only after the country’s output rises back to the levels before the West imposed sanctions over its nuclear program.
Basically Iran wants to increase production now, in an attempt to revive their share in the global markets, before they even consider discussing about participating in an output freeze. Iraq also has a longstanding policy of seeking to raise production regardless of the price-stabilizing policies of the OPEC.
Russia said that OPEC’s meeting with other key oil producers regarding an output freeze will probably be held in Doha, Qatar in April. They said that Iran supports the plan, while Tehran says it wants to double its crude exports to 4 million bpd first.
However, in reality according to the latest oil market data, both Russia and Saudi Arabia ramped up their oil production in February, despite talks about supply caps. Russian oil supply reached a new high of 11.08 million barrels a day in February, and Saudi Arabia during the same month increased its daily output by 14,000 barrels, to 10.14 million barrels per day, according to OPEC's analysis of market sources.
Generally speaking, countries are less willing to freeze and especially to cut production, because doing so means giving up market share for their oil, which might be hard to win back especially during this transition period. The four major oil powers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar, are heavily involved in the various discussions and the coordinated efforts will probably include soon also non OPEC countries such as Oman, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Assuming all are on board, the oil glut could begin to ease, particularly with American output on the decline. Or at least that is what they anticipate with this concept.
The fact is that a two million barrel-per-day surplus in oil supplies will continue to weigh on prices in the short term and even if these countries freeze output, they would still need more drastic efforts to support prices in the long term.
From my own perspective, it looks like their ultimate goal is to reach a certain consensus and, if they actually get there, I would expect them to quickly focus on actually reducing production in the long term. In any case, analysts estimate that maintaining production at current levels will probably not have a significant effect on prices.
Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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