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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike, as market delegates are looking for ways to cope with the record low freight rates and determine whether the market will go next. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with January having closed off with record lows on almost all dry indices (the exception is for the Capesize index which thanks to a small rally during the final week managed to prop slightly higher than the low of 185 points that was achieved on the 19th), many are feeling the pressure and are worried that this market has no bottom and has turned into an endless black hole”.
According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the initial resistance point many believed the market would reach was at 345 in the BDI. This was reached this Tuesday, with quick softening followed on subsequent days easily breaking below this level. The next point in sight that it seems should provide some resistance to further drops should be at around 298 points”. This was also reached on Thursday, while Friday’s session saw thw BDI closing at 297 points. Lazaridis said that “to put this index value into perspective and given the current state of each of the individual markets, this point would refer to average TCE rates of the Capesize at around US$ 2,618pd, that of Panamaxes at US$ 2,161pd, Supramaxes at US$ 2,989pd and that of Handysizes at US$ 3,034pd.”
Yet, the main question still remains as to if this will really be a resistance level that will be hard to break. According to Lazaridis, “Logically there is a level at which the market just doesn’t make sense for anyone to trade below that point. This however depends on a number of factors with most prominent that of the time period that has passed under which the market has been receiving “subpar” rates. To explain this further, owners might be willing to accept abnormally low freight rates if they know it will only be for one-two voyages (i.e. it is a small glitch in the market). However, it is nonsensical to continually trade for long periods of time at a constant loss. Therefore, given the fact that we have been seeing these poor freight levels for around two months now and given the rumours of many owners in the market already looking seriously into their options in terms of cold lay-up, it makes sense to assume that we are under the case of the latter and are likely going to hit a level deemed as the absolute low the market can sustain for now”, Allied’s analyst noted.
He added: “Noting at the same time that we have already seen a break in the consecutive negative days posted in the Capesize market, it looks as though we can presume that this size segment might well have reached its absolute low under the current market conditions, fluctuating thereafter at levels just above and just below this until the market finds a foothold from where to improve. Taking the same premise however on all the other size segments and we see that this next theoretical resistance point will likely be reached easily within this week and could possibly drop even further”.
According to Lazaridis, “a more reasonable resistance level is likely going to prove to be at 236 points on the BDI, a level that will be hard to reach as it will require the combination of all four size segments reaching their theoretical “breaking points” at the same time, but given the market conditions we have seen over the past month, it doesn’t sound like it’s an unthinkable scenario either. Nevertheless, all this will prove to be theoretical, as in practice the market may well have further surprises down the road. The current levels are already well below what the majority of owners can sustain given their OPEX levels, as such pushing more and more to take up options such as that of scrapping or layingup vessels and in turn helping improve the supply side of things”. On the demand side of things many are hopeful of slightly better interest from Charterers after the Chinese New Year, however these hopes have faltered in the past and may well do again”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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