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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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