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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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