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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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