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Wednesday, 13 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
 Going through the second week of 2016 we could easily argue that at this point there are no visible signs of an imminent recovery in the Dry Bulk market. This is also most probably the reason why despite the significant drop in prices for second hand tonnage, especially for modern assets and for vessels that are above 10 years old, has extended into this year, as limited investor interested is at this stage unable to support asset prices.
The big question that arises in the mind of many market participants is whether prices will remain at their current heavily discounted levels or if they will fall further. Bank financing is expected to have a crucial role in this, pretty much as it did during 2015 when a number of banks exerted pressure on many shipowners to conclude a number of distressed deals with profound implications for the secondhand market and asset prices more specifically. The following two comparable sales is a characteristic example of the magnitude of this exerted pressure on prices; in July 2015, the “GRACE FUTURE” (75k blt ’06, Japan) was sold at about $13.5m and just four months later, the “MARITIME HARESHIO” (75k blt ‘06 Japan), was sold for $8.5m, which represents a hefty 37% drop.
An important factor behind the falling asset prices, besides the poor condition of the freight market that is, is the number of newbuilding vessels expected to hit water in 2016, a substantial part of which was originally scheduled to be delivered during last year. The magnitude of the pressure the additional tonnage that was set to come in service this year would bring on earnings, forced many owners to sell tonnage at low prices during the last part of 2015, being certain that in the beginning of 2016 the situation would only worsen, something that they pretty much seem to have gotten right so far. As hard as it might be to look for silver linings at this stage, the exceptionally slow ordering activity in the Dry Bulk sector is without a doubt a positive development that will definitely help the market in the future. Let’s not forget that one of the factors currently impacting the market severely is in fact the large volume of newbuilding orders placed back in 2013.
Another remarkable fact is that the biggest part of the latest sales, especially in regards to modern tonnage (Cape resales, Ultramaxes, modern Kamsarmaxes etc) comes from listed companies. These sales significantly affect the ‘last dones’ and the market consequently, while at the same time it is extremely difficult for a private company to sell at such a loss its modern vessels. The biggest part of the market “experts” has very low expectations in regards to this year and to be fair macro data in regards to dry bulk commodities is not currently helping towards a more positive view. Nevertheless, in my opinion and as the market is already standing at historical lows, maybe market predictions should aim more on how long this depressed period is going to last and less on the fact that it will indeed be a depressed period, as pretty much everyone has gotten this by now.
This might be the year when prices for Dry Bulk vessels might bottom or not. The “right” time remains perhaps the single most important factor in investing but as this time can be rarely pointed out with precision, all a potential investor can focus on is a comparison between current prices and lows in previous cycles. In this respect, 2016 will be a year of opportunity for shipowners to invest but more specifically those shipowners who have made provisions for at least a few more depressed months ahead.
George Iliopoulos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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