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Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the pressure on US shale oil output, may benefit European refiners, Fitch Ratings says. These trends could support a wider price differential between the Brent and Urals benchmarks and a narrower differential between Brent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark, reducing the competitive advantage US refiners have over their European rivals.
The Brent-Urals differential rose above USD3.5/bbl in October from USD1-USD2/bbl earlier this year. The widening gap reflects higher availability of Russian crude in the Baltic Sea region as production in Russia reached post-Soviet highs. Saudi crude oil deliveries to Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN) and Preem in early November might have also contributed to the widening Urals discount.
Renewed supplies of predominantly lower quality Iranian crude following the expected sanctions relief in 2016 should result in greater competition between sour crude oil types. This is likely to support further widening of the Brent-Urals differential, benefitting Central European and some Mediterranean refiners.
We believe that MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas and PKN are best placed in our portfolio to benefit as they primarily use Russian crude oil in their refineries. Tupras, with its proximity to the Bosphorus strait, has access to a wide variety of crude types and will likely benefit from both the wider Brent-Urals differential and improved access and pricing of Iranian crude.
Mediterranean refiners such as Tupras were obliged to reduce purchases of favourably priced Iranian crude when sanctions against Iran were introduced in 2012. Once the sanctions are lifted, we expect a gradual ramp-up in Iranian crude output starting from the second half of 2016. This suggests widening Brent-Iranian oil differentials will be more pronounced from 2017.
Crude oil constitutes the largest share of refineries' costs and the ability to source crude at lower prices therefore has a significant effect on profitability and competitiveness. Western European refiners are better placed to use lighter Brent oil, while CEE companies have traditionally relied on heavier Russian crude.
In recent years, the competition from the US refineries in Europe intensified as they had access to oil at a significant discount to Brent. However the differential between WTI and Brent crude has now fallen to around USD2.5/bbl from USD8-USD15/bbl between September 2013 and June 2014 when US imports were at their peak. After some delay US shale oil supply has fallen and we expect the decline to be more pronounced from next year contributing to a narrower differential to Brent in the medium term.
Narrower WTI-Brent differentials will not be enough to entirely wipe out the competitive advantage of the US refiners that also benefit from low natural gas prices. But we think the narrower differential coupled with lower natural gas prices in Europe and dollar appreciation against the euro will improve competitiveness of European refiners.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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