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Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the pressure on US shale oil output, may benefit European refiners, Fitch Ratings says. These trends could support a wider price differential between the Brent and Urals benchmarks and a narrower differential between Brent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark, reducing the competitive advantage US refiners have over their European rivals.
The Brent-Urals differential rose above USD3.5/bbl in October from USD1-USD2/bbl earlier this year. The widening gap reflects higher availability of Russian crude in the Baltic Sea region as production in Russia reached post-Soviet highs. Saudi crude oil deliveries to Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN) and Preem in early November might have also contributed to the widening Urals discount.
Renewed supplies of predominantly lower quality Iranian crude following the expected sanctions relief in 2016 should result in greater competition between sour crude oil types. This is likely to support further widening of the Brent-Urals differential, benefitting Central European and some Mediterranean refiners.
We believe that MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas and PKN are best placed in our portfolio to benefit as they primarily use Russian crude oil in their refineries. Tupras, with its proximity to the Bosphorus strait, has access to a wide variety of crude types and will likely benefit from both the wider Brent-Urals differential and improved access and pricing of Iranian crude.
Mediterranean refiners such as Tupras were obliged to reduce purchases of favourably priced Iranian crude when sanctions against Iran were introduced in 2012. Once the sanctions are lifted, we expect a gradual ramp-up in Iranian crude output starting from the second half of 2016. This suggests widening Brent-Iranian oil differentials will be more pronounced from 2017.
Crude oil constitutes the largest share of refineries' costs and the ability to source crude at lower prices therefore has a significant effect on profitability and competitiveness. Western European refiners are better placed to use lighter Brent oil, while CEE companies have traditionally relied on heavier Russian crude.
In recent years, the competition from the US refineries in Europe intensified as they had access to oil at a significant discount to Brent. However the differential between WTI and Brent crude has now fallen to around USD2.5/bbl from USD8-USD15/bbl between September 2013 and June 2014 when US imports were at their peak. After some delay US shale oil supply has fallen and we expect the decline to be more pronounced from next year contributing to a narrower differential to Brent in the medium term.
Narrower WTI-Brent differentials will not be enough to entirely wipe out the competitive advantage of the US refiners that also benefit from low natural gas prices. But we think the narrower differential coupled with lower natural gas prices in Europe and dollar appreciation against the euro will improve competitiveness of European refiners.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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