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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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