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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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