We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
|
|
|
Showing 2851 to 2855 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
