We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
|
|
|
Showing 2841 to 2845 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
|
| |
| |
|
