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Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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Showing 2826 to 2830 news of total 6871 |
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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