We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
|
|
|
Showing 2821 to 2825 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
