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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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