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Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
 Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chinese iron ore restocking that traditionally picks up during Q4, is currently stealing the spotlight. The Capesize summer rally proved to be short-lived, with the average rate for the segment losing most of its gains and settling around $8,000/day. Spot rates have nonetheless increased more than 70% during last week.
Looking at the short term momentum, this appears to be favoring another boost for the big bulkers. Iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports are currently well below the five year average. The 14% drop in imports that took place in August, has at the same time created an additional “gap” to be filled. The ratio of the present inventory of iron ore over steel production, which is also well below the five-year average, points out to a bigger than usual portion of iron ore stockpiles being consumed by Chinese mills and turned into steel. Despite the fact that domestic steel consumption has been faltering as of last year, production has found support in exports, which are up a whopping 27% in the first 8 months of the year. With low inventories of iron ore, steel production inching up last month, and a very strong trend of steel exports year to date, everything points out to another round of stockpiling and possibly another mini Capesize rally in the way, “mini” being the operative word here.
Although rates appear set to advance further in the following days, I am skeptic in regards to how long positive momentum can be sustained. The reality is that despite the decrease in Chinese iron ore production levels, these are still considerable given the current steel output in the country, setting a limit in imports and consequently the spikes Cape rates enjoy. As steel producers in China turn to higher quality imported iron ore and local iron ore producers exit the market amidst low prices, things certainly move towards the “right” direction but we are hardly there yet.
Additionally and even most importantly, China remains the top steel consuming market worldwide and despite the fact that shipping its steel to India and other SE Asian countries might be offsetting part of the gap created by the domestic consumption slowdown, it doesn’t even get close to filling it. With Chinese steel consumption and production expected to shift into an even lower gear, the amount of iron ore required by Chinese producers going forward is set to keep less and less dwt busy. Muddy waters for Capes.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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