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Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
 Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy this year have led to slower trade growth in these sectors, while oil trade growth, which has accounted for a smaller share of world trade growth over the last decade, has emerged as the largest driver of global trade growth in 2015 so far.
Dry Bulk Slowdown
Dry bulk trade has been one of the fastest growing elements of seaborne trade in the last decade, recording a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% in the 2005-14 period. Expansion in dry bulk trade volumes accounted for an astounding 61% of growth in global seaborne trade during this period. However, this share is projected to fall to 11% in 2015.
Growth in dry bulk trade in the last decade was driven by rapid economic development in China which boosted imports, particularly of iron ore, coal and other minerals. However, this year, Chinese imports have slowed notably, with coal down 31% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2015, due to falling coal demand and coal quality regulations. This is expected to contribute to the first decline in global coal trade in almost 30 years. Meanwhile, iron ore trade is expected to grow at its slowest pace since 2001, partly as global steel output has declined this year.
Mixed Box Signals
Seaborne container trade has also grown at a fairly firm pace in recent years, largely on the back of growing Chinese exports. In 2005-14, box trade growth accounted for 22% of world seaborne trade growth. This share is projected to rise to 30% in 2015 in part due to limited growth in dry bulk trade. However, box trade growth is expected to slow this year. Recent indicators suggest trade volumes on some routes have been fairly weak in the year to date, especially into Europe. Meanwhile, expansion of intra-Asian trade, which has been one of the fastest growing elements of box trade in recent years, has not been as firm as originally expected, due to economic developments in the region this year.
Oil Trade On The Up
Seaborne oil trade has been considered to be fairly mature in recent years, registering average growth of 1% pa in 2005-14. This year, relatively firm growth of 4% is expected, as Chinese crude imports have surged partly in response to low oil prices. Meanwhile, European crude imports have grown this year as refinery margins in the region have improved. Crude imports into Europe are expected to rise 8% y-o-y in full year 2015, following two consecutive years of decline. Consequently, with a downward trend in the trade of other major cargoes, the share of growth in world seaborne trade accounted for by oil trade is expected to rise from 1% in 2010-14 to 40% this year.
Watching the Economy
So, developments in the world economy are having a visible impact, with seaborne trade growth more balanced but slowing. It is clear that these changes are affecting shipping markets, and further revisions to trade projections for this year could yet cement this change in the balance even further.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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